International Markets

2025 Export Data Shows Major Shortfalls to Expected Trade

Japanese demand for J-grade lumber continued to fall short of their 2026 projections. Export data from the Japanese Lumber Importers Association indicated that Canadian revealed that just under 900 mmbf of lumber were imported, continuing a 4-year downward trend. Softwood exports worldwide from two of South Americas largest producers, Chile and Brazil, fell by 7% from 5.3 million cubic meters to 4.9 million cubic meters. Chilean Radiata pine was the biggest competitor to US produced Southern and Ponderosa pine, indicating that the 10% tariffs have had little effect to leverage US produced softwood lumber. Brazilian lumber exports had a major spike across the Pacific, with major importers being Taiwan, Thailand, India and the Philippines.

 2025 trade data also revealed that US imports from Canadian mills and offshore sources decreased by 23% over the course of four quarters. Canadian lumber found its way to Chinese ports as alternative outlet, with Chinese imports of Canadian lumber surged to around 400 mmb in late 2025.

US produced Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) lumber and clears has continued to make its way to the construction markets of the Middle East and North Africa, particularly in Syria, where international economists predict that the cost for rebuilding after the civil war will top $400 billion. Despite the high need and high demand of building materials, the actual market for these products has been slow to emerge after sanctions were lifted nearly a year ago.

Customers who frequently purchase European spruce are preparing to seek out alternatives as producers have noted an accelerated decline in log supplies. Total imports of European spruce lumber slipped by 26% from February 2025 to February 2026. The problem has stemmed from a mix of bark beetle infestations and widespread winter storms that have resulted in decreased log availability in European mills. 

After Sluggish Q1 Start, US Exports to China Stabilize, Demand for Hardwood Worldwide Increases

After two full quarters trade-war induced volatility, hardwood trade markets with China and other Asian countries appeared to stabilize, with hardwood log exports up 39% from the beginning of the year through April. Despite these first quarter gains, US exports were still slightly lower than at this same time last year. Cross border imports/exports from the US and Canada continued to strengthen, but fuel and freight costs continue to impact buying tendencies on both sides of the border.

Asian buyers tended to favor Walnut and Red oak logs, but exporters did report an increase of sales for Cherry logs that nearly doubled last year’s volumes.  On the lumber side of exports, Poplar remained the product with the most upward momentum in the Asian market, jumping 11% year-over-year to 3 MMBF.

Overall lumber exports to Europe continued to decline through Q1 of 2026, sliding downward 2%. Exports to the UK made up most of the volume shipped to Europe in 2025, but as UK demand flattened by 19%, so did overall volumes to the European market. White Oak shipments to Europe lost more ground than others by volume, Red Oak shipments were down most by overall volume. Shipments to Italy, Spain and Germany ticked slightly higher this quarter, but not by any notable measures.

Latin American markets were active last quarter, jumping 1% from April 2025 to April 2026, with Mexico bumping to a 20-month high. Market demand for Hickory lumber saw a surprising jump, surpassing the Red Oak lumber which is traditionally the most in demand species in Latin American countries such as Guatemala. Additionally, demand for Soft Maple surpassed Red Oak in Honduras.

For the first time since 1991, there were no shipments made to the United Arab Emirates due to ongoing hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Overall shipments to the Middle East region were down 24%.