National and Regional Markets

Export Tallies Reveal a Split, White oak prices hit the bottom, Hardwood Pallets are the Star of the Quarter.

Exports of lumber and logs made two very different trajectories this quarter. Sales of lumber to overseas customers hit the lowest numbers in 16 years, suffering largely from the tariffs and decline of sales to China. Log exports to Vietnam spiked early in the first quarter and have continued to surge, limiting the supply of logs for domestic mills. Black Walnut logs have been especially limited, with more than 8 million board feet of logs being exported to Vietnam.

Over the last 18 months, prices for White Oak lumber have been on a continuous retreat as market demand for stave cuts dried up. Domestically, longer cuts of White Oak lumber started to bounce back in late May but failed to make anything other than ‘modest gains’ through the end of the quarter. 

An overall reduction in hardwood lumber productivity has given way to increased demand for pallet cants and lumber. Demand for pallets typically spike during the summer months but the exceptionally poor market has made pallet-grade lumber look extraordinary. 

Northern Markets (I-74 and North)

Prices for Ash lumber stayed steady for both green and kiln-dried, with 1F kiln dried making small upward adjustments for tightening supplies. Aspen prices continued to make a slow climb from the 5-year low they hit in winter 2025 but a slow pace of 0.4% above what it had been. Northern select Basswood gained in prevailing prices this quarter as suppliers continue to seek species to substitute their Ash orders with. Green sawn Basswood made gains but not nearly to the degree that kiln dried did. Both products are still down by more than 10% from 5 years ago. Yellow Birch lumber, after a year of slow decline showed signs of leveling out with one month of no loss in prevailing value. Green sawn common grade Cherry lumber values showed a strong comeback in consumer demand after being down 40% from 5 years ago, with prevailing prices for 4/4 kiln dried jumping by an average of 5% in the last 6 months. Hard Maple prices remained unremarkable over the last quarter as salvage operations from the early season ice storms wound to a close. Soft Maple prices bowed downward this quarter after a very robust close to 2025 and opening of 2026, losing an average of about 2% of the prevailing price over the last quarter. Red Oak lumber prices remained flat, White Oak prices continued to slump, finishing the quarter at 6% below 6 months ago for kiln dried and 13% for green sawn. 

Appalachian Markets (I-72 to Memphis)

Prevailing prices for Ash lumber stayed consistent throughout the second quarter. Prices for green and kiln dried are expected to continue this dynamic as log supplies continue to become scarce. Upper grade Basswood prices were steady, prevailing prices on lower grade green, and kiln dried lumber jumped an average of $20 per Mbf. Upper grade common Cherry and 90/50 common prices came up slightly over a 3-month period, creating a “U” shape pattern recovery since the rescinding of tariffs in March. Kiln dried #2 Common Cherry appeared to gain favor among consumers late in Q2, jumping by more than $40/Mbf in prevailing price. FAS/1F and #2 common Hickory both showed gains in demand, 2 common finishing the quarter $80 above the beginning prevailing price. Hard and Soft Maple prices for green and dried stayed steady, with #2 common Soft Maple making the only notable gains. Red Oak prices in the region remained low with reports of market saturation, especially in the southern region, undercutting any gains that would be made by regional exporters. All grades of White Oak lumber continued to either decline or hold their value, except for 8/4 #2 common (kiln dried) which had a massive spike in pricing at the beginning of the quarter. Value was lost towards the end of Q2 but stayed $200 higher per Mbf than at the end of Q1. The market value of White Oak continues to be extremely susceptible to lengths demands of the market. Poplar lumber prices took a slight downturn in May and have yet to bounce back. Walnut log availability continued to be the main issue facing mills and buyers this quarter. After the March tariff truce between the US and China, log availability became exponentially tighter with buyers from both Vietnam and China vying for Midwest Walnut. In Illinois alone, 1 in every 3 trees harvested was a Walnut in Q2.