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National and Regional Markets
Early Gains Hamstrung by Fallout from Middle East Conflict
At the close out of 2025 and into the first month of 2026, sawmill and log yard owners were left feeling like they were starting at zero after almost a full year of little to no profit. Once trade with China was realigned in November of 2025, mills were able to quickly recapture most of what had been lost due to the tariff wars. As 2026 marched on, demand for Walnut, Red Oak and Cherry from Asian markets caught most domestic mills off guard. Most regional mills reported they had enough customer orders going into March to keep them occupied, but were having issues procuring logs. As demand for logs in China increased, particularly Walnut, procurement foresters were reporting being outbid by as much as 20% at the landing. As the quarter drew to a close, landowners were seeing a generous increase in stumpage values and mills were receiving as much as 12% more for kiln dried and green sawn products. With the consent of the Iran conflict and fuel prices driving shipping cost up as much as $400, mills are hesitant to put much stock into a successful second quarter.
Northern Region
(I-74 and north)
Appalachian Region
(I-74 to Memphis, TN)
A dwindling of clean standing Ash and overseas demand helped boost kiln dried and green sawn prices. Basswood and Birch prices remained flat through the quarter. Weekly bumps in prices were observed, but mostly when mills needed to substitute orders for Ash lumber. Cherry lumber made a modest comeback, mostly bolstered by demand from China, but mills have also reported increased sales of 90/50 Red Cherry domestically. Hard Maple prices were either flat or declined depending on the product. Demand for #1&2 select declines were evident in the retreating prices. By contrast, Soft Maple prices remained steady across the board.
Red Oak prices remained on a general upswing, with kiln dried lumber prices experiencing some small slips through the quarter. Demand for White oak continued its steady decline over this quarter with kiln dried select grades dropping by as much as 12% year-over-year. Kiln dried Walnut held its value, though the increase was not as dramatic as most would have hoped given the increased overseas demand.
Mills and lumber supply yards in the Appalachian region fared largely better than those in over regions, largely due to milder spring weather. Prevailing green lumber prices for Ash, Basswood and Poplar held steady over the last 3 months, with Poplar prices reported 1% higher than 1 month ago, but still 8% lower than one year ago. Kiln dried Ash made a 6% climb from six-months ago, Basswood made a 12% climb. Prices paid for common grade green sawn and kiln dried Cherry lumber made modest increases from one year ago. This increase is likely being caused by resumed exports overseas coupled with the 14 month decrease in production. Demand for Hard and Soft Maple remained flat through the quarter with no remarkable shifts in pricing.
Price differentials on Red Oak lumber were kept fairly tight, only 4/4 green sawn lost value compared to kiln dried products, mostly due to the increased export demand. Market demand for all grades of sawn White Oak lumber continued to decline this quarter; prices for upper grade White Oak were reported to be down 14% from last year. Market demand for Walnut remained historically high, but green sawn products saw the most gain with select grade 4/4 products jumping 30% in sale values.
